Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Purdue football game in 2024 (2024)

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Purdue. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.

Previously: Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Minnesota | Nebraska | Northwestern | Ohio State | Oregon | Penn State

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Welcome back to the build-up of preseason storylines for the college football season, including Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series! Along the way, we are breaking down and predicting every matchup on the 2024 Big Ten schedule.

The latest in the series tackles Purdue, a program entering Year 2 under Ryan Walters after a 4-8 performance a season ago. The Boilermakers are just 2 years removed from playing for the B1G Championship, but it has been a full rebuild following Jeff Brohm’s departure.

Purdue hopes to find some growth and momentum throughout 2024. Unfortunately, that is tough to project after last season.

The Boilermakers were among the worst defenses in the country (30.4 points per game allowed), and the offense also struggled, finishing 87th in scoring (23.9 points per game).

The offense returns some playmakers in starting quarterback Hudson Card and star running back Devin Mockobee. Those 2 players will be leaned on a lot, but it will not be easy.

The Boilermakers used the transfer portal to rebuild the roster with 18 incoming pieces. Unfortunately, the portal was equally unkind with leading receiver Deion Burks (629 yards, 7 touchdowns) and leading pass rusher Nic Scourton (10 sacks) leaving.

Can Purdue lean into its new-look roster to pull off some surprises, or will it take another year or two to turn the corner under Walters? Let’s find out what the Crystal Ball sees in the future.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Indiana State (W)

Indiana State is not just an FCS program. The Sycamores were among the worst teams in the country last season, finishing 1-10 with anemic performances on both sides of the ball. Indiana State gave up 30+ points 6 times, including 41 points in a blowout loss to Indiana — their lone Power 5 opponent. The Sycamores are unlikely to pull off anything surprising in the season-opener. Look for Purdue to roll and get up to speed for the season ahead.

Week 2: BYE

Week 3: vs. Notre Dame (L)

Purdue will not get any time to ramp up its competition level this fall, facing Notre Dame in the 2nd game of the season after an early Week 2 bye. The Boilermakers last faced the Irish in 2021, a hard-fought game but a loss nonetheless. Notre Dame enters the season No. 7 overall on ESPN’s Football Power Index, a big jump from Purdue’s 60th overall spot. With former Duke QB Riley Leonard in the fold, Notre Dame is poised to make the jump from Sam Hartman with relative ease, and the offense could put Purdue’s defense through a world of hurt.

Week 4: at Oregon State (L)

Oregon State is no longer a Power conference program as 1 of the 2 remaining schools of the old Pac-12. That leaves the long-term future of the Beavers in serious question, but the program left behind by Jonathan Smith still has some talent for new head coach Trent Bray. The trip out west in nonconference play saves Purdue a return trip when the B1G schedule kicks in, but that doesn’t take away the impact the travel will have early in the season. Winning on the road is never easy. That goes double for a young and growing program under Walters.

Week 5: vs. Nebraska (L)

Nebraska has all kinds of momentum heading into Year 2 under Matt Rhule. The same cannot be said for the Boilermakers. What’s the difference? Nebraska was at least effective on one side of the ball last season, hanging its hat on a defense that allowed just 18.2 points per game. Even playing at home, it will be tough for the Boilermakers to score enough in this game. It sets up for the Huskers to pull away in this one unless disastrous QB play keeps things close.

Week 6: at Wisconsin (L)

Certain series are prone to historical dominance. That’s the current state of this matchup with Wisconsin winning 17 straight against the Boilermakers, many of which weren’t close. The Badgers won 38-17 last season — in West Lafayette. Purdue must head to Camp Randall Stadium this season, and that only makes the challenge even bigger. The one caveat? Wisconsin needs to show it can find a defensive identity under Luke Fickell, so this could be a bit of a shootout if the Boilermakers get rolling. But I still wouldn’t count on Purdue finding enough on the road.

Week 7: at Illinois (L)

Purdue has been loving life against Illinois lately, winning 4 straight in football (plus going 3-0 against the Illini in the 2023-24 basketball season). So let’s chalk this one up to Illinois being due, and I think the football programs were a bit more evenly matched than what played out in 2023. Bret Bielema is 0-3 vs. Purdue since arriving in Champaign. You can bet he’ll approach this game with a certain feeling of desperation in search of a win.

Week 8: vs. Oregon (L)

Oregon and Purdue had a home-and-home series in 2008-09 — both wins by the Ducks — but have otherwise not faced off since the 1970s. The two games in that series were decided by a total of 8 points. Let’s just say I expect a wider margin this time. Dan Lanning didn’t just build his program the right way for the rigors of a B1G schedule. The Ducks are built to contend nationally, and it will take some serious Ross-Ade magic to pull off something special.

Week 9: BYE

Week 10: vs. Northwestern (W)

The first week in November will bring a glimmer of hope. Purdue struggled to find the end zone early against Northwestern a season ago, thanks in large part to 4 turnovers. The Boilermakers were still able to move the ball without Hudson Card, who was sidelined, but the inability to hang onto the ball doomed them. The Wildcats snuck away with one. This time, Purdue gets a bit of revenge and a bright spot before some brutal games down the stretch.

Week 11: at Ohio State (L)

Just 3 weeks after facing Oregon, Purdue will get the chance to face the other preseason favorite per the latest 2024 B1G Championship odds from DraftKings. Everyone certainly remembers the memorable upset of the Buckeyes from Jeff Brohm’s tenure, but this matchup will be light years different. For starters, the game is in Columbus, and it’s unlikely this version of Ohio State surrenders 49 points to any team this fall. It’s possible a conservative approach from the Buckeyes keeps this closer than expected throughout the first half, but don’t expect any good moments to last for long.

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Week 12: vs. Penn State (L)

Someone in the old B1G West had to draw the short straw in regards to the 2024 schedule. That team just happens to be Purdue, which must face Ohio State and Penn State (in back-to-back weeks) while also getting to face newcomer Oregon. The Nittany Lions are a top-10 team on just about every metric and ranking system heading into the season, and James Franklin has his eyes on a long-coveted spot in the College Football Playoff. Penn State could be facing the prospects of an at-large bid, so expect some style points piled up in an unfortunate rout of the Boilermakers.

Week 13: at Michigan State (L)

Ryan Walters has a year head start on Jonathan Smith’s rebuild at Michigan State. Unfortunately, it might not matter. The Spartans are far from a sure product in Year 1 of the rebuild, but Smith has established his pedigree as a true program builder. He also has a veteran coaching staff that knows how to get the most out of their players while also building from the ground up. The stretch of games leading up to Week 13 are also a gauntlet, so Purdue may be running out of steam by the time the Boilermakers hit East Lansing.

Week 14: at Indiana (L)

Purdue has become accustomed to taking down its in-state rival, winning 3 straight in the season-ending series. That includes Walters getting his own taste of the rivalry with a 35-31 win a season ago. And, on the outset, losing to new head coach Curt Cignetti in his first season in Bloomington would be a tough pill to swallow. I get it: Cignetti’s brashness will not win him any fans outside of Bloomington, but he’s bound to steal a few wins from B1G opponents, and the rivalry series looks like a perfect moment for the Hoosiers.

2024 Projection: 2-10 (1-8)

There are a handful of teams from the old B1G East that are more than happy to see a division-less version of the conference. Then there’s Purdue, a member of the old B1G West Division that is paying the price dearly this season.

The schedule-makers gave the Boilermakers a matchup with the top 3 teams in the B1G title odds entering the season, and that’s without getting into a nonconference slate that includes 2 strong programs.

In fact, ESPN’s strength of schedule measurements gives Purdue the 11th-toughest schedule in the country. It’s also the toughest schedule in the B1G and the 2nd-toughest schedule for any team outside of the SEC.

I don’t expect immediate changes at the top for Purdue regardless of the win-loss record this season, but it’s going to be the kind of year that leads to an offseason of questions and worrying heading into 2025.